Good food, fellowship, and candidates were abundant at our annual Holiday Party.
At the meeting on December 3 we met some 2019 candidates. Here are their names and the positions they are running for:
- Analisa Sondergaard – Currently Magisterial Judge, will be running for the Court of Common Pleas
- Marian Moskowitz – Currently serving on many non-profit boards, will be running for County Commissioner
- Deborah Ryan – Currently serving as County Coordinator for Safe and Healthy Communities, will be running for District Attorney
- Joshua Maxwell – Current mayor of Downingtown PA, will be running for County Commissioner.
There’s a lot more to be learned about these and other candidates in the upcoming year.
Analysis by Nathaniel Smith
For data election fans, the results at http://webapps.chesco.org/election/lib/election/results/cumf.htm are now official.
We have often lamented low voter turnout but we know it was great on Nov. 6. As mentioned previously, the overall turnout figure per Voter Services is 66%. I actually think it should be considered higher, if we look at the % of all voters who have maintained updated voter records, as explained at the end below.
Beyond the sheer fact of the Blue Wave, a look at the Chesco results by district turns up very interesting results,
On average, Chesco Dems have a 6% registration deficit; they have an edge over R’s only in PA House 157 (1%) and 74 (17%; remember: that’s the district gerrymandered in 2011 to pack Dems and take Dems out of surrounding districts). Because of the number of I’s (17% overall), neither party has more than ½ the voters in any district except 51% R’s in House 26 and 50.5% Ds in the 74th.
In countywide races, the Dem candidates won by a substantial margin (Wolf & Fetterman by 24% of all votes in their race; Casey by 20%; and Houlahan by 17%) and their votes received were around 120% of the number of Dems registered. In PA Senate 26 and 44, the figures were 123% and 111%, and in the PA House they averaged 106% (below 100% only in PA House 13 and 74).
In every single district, Dem candidates’ votes as a % of registered Dems were higher than R candidates’ votes as a % of registered Rs, with an average 26% D advantage in that comparison. But where that D advantage was smaller (7% in the 13th, 21% in the House 26th), the Dem couldn’t catch up because of low turnout (PA House 74, where Dem reg predominates, is an exception, with only a 4% difference in this ratio).
The total vote for Chesco’s PA House seats gave a 7% edge to D candidates. From a 6% reg deficit to a 7% votes edge: that’s impressive! R’s won in only 2 districts in Chester County: PA House 13 and 26, where turnout was less than the county average of 76% (the only other below-average turnout district, the 74th, was won resoundingly by the Dem). Those 3 below-average turnout districts lie at the western edge of the County; turnout tended to be somewhat higher in the East of the County. (Overall the D did not win the 160th, despite the 2nd highest Chesco winning % of any House seat, because the vote in Delco was so unfavorable.)
Districts won by Dems had these factors in common:
• a Dem registration advantage, or a disadvantage under 10%
• total (D+R+I) voter turnout over 77% (except PA House 74)
• Dem candidates received votes over 110% of the number of registered Dems (except PA House 74)
It is clear that, as in the past, Dem candidates picked up sizable numbers of votes from registered R’s and I’s. We can hope to say more when the latest data enters VoteBuilder, so that we can get a precise idea of turnout by party in each district. But the conclusion remains no surprise: Dems here need more R’s and I’s to become, or at least vote for, Dems.
Progress is incremental: as we all recall, Hillary Clinton won Chester County by 25,000 votes, But where she did not win, basically the northern and western tiers of the County, forming the bulk of the 13th and 26th House districts (and similarly the adjoining area of Delco that forms most of the 160th), historical redness proved too great an obstacle for Dem candidates to overcome this year.
We get the luxury of a few more days to indulge in retrospectives, and then after Thanksgiving we start looking forward to the 2019 campaigns and many important races!
[N.b. The registration figures I use above are lower than those given by Voter Services, because I excluded voters marked in VoteBuilder as having bad voting or mailing addresses or as being deceased. One could analyze it differently, but I think it’s most realistic to expect that those voters are not really voters here any more (indeed, relatively few of them voted in the previous 3 elections either, which one can check as of now). Therefore, I get higher turnout figures than the official Voter Services figure (countywide: about 76% compared to 66%). At any rate, this decision should not much affect the comparison of districts’ turnouts, just the exact numbers and %’s of difference.]
While there may be questions about the size of the blue wave nationally, it was tidal wave here at home. For the second year in a row, the results at the county and local levels were stunning. Democratic candidates running in our zone won seats that were historically held by Republicans. Congratulations to Chrissy Houlahan and Kristine Howard for their historic victories in the 6th Congressional district and 167th State Representative district respectively.
Much like in 2017, Democratic candidates did extraordinarily well in East Whiteland and Charlestown. Here are some of the highlights in our zone.
- Democratic candidates won every precinct in our zone except one (by 23 votes).
- Democratic candidates outperformed the county-level results by 6-7 percentage points in East Whiteland. In Charlestown, Democratic candidates outperformed the county-level results in 3 out of 4 races.
- Governor Wolf was the biggest winner in our zone winning 66% overall and won one precinct by over 70%!
These results reflect the hard work of our candidates, Committee people and volunteers. We have demonstrated that our continued commitment to grassroots campaigning makes a difference. Please consider getting involved as there are plenty ways to volunteer.
While these results are historic and should be celebrated, this is no time to become complacent. There was a great deal of enthusiasm in this election and we need to maintain this level of engagement for our local elections next year and continue the momentum into 2020.
Chester County Democratic Committee TRUE BLUE SOCIETY
Reflections of the 2018 Midterms
from the press’s point of view
Wednesday, November 14
5:30 pm to 7:30 pm
Timothy’s of Lionville
Lionville Shopping Center
120 Eagleview Blvd. • Exton • 19321
Mike McGann, Editor/Publisher
The Times of Chester County, Unionville Times, Kennett Times, Coatesville Times & Downingtown Times
Wally Kennedy, KYW Newsradio Anchor
Wally Kennedy has been a news anchor with KYW Newsradio since 2006.
A familiar name in Philadelphia radio and television, he has covered stories
in the area for 35 years. Prior to joining KYW Newsradio, he spent twenty years
as a television talk host, leading three successful news-oriented talk programs,
a top-rated entertainment show, and many special programs.
Exclusive Admission to True Blue Society & Chair’s Club members only
For tickets print this form and bring payment to event.
It was a cool, rainy day on November 6, but that didn’t deter thousands of voters from casting their ballots.
Voters were greeted by our hard-working volunteers at every precinct in Zone 13.
The results were phenomenal as all Democratic candidates on our ballot won: Tom Wolf, Bob Casey Jr., Chrissy Houlahan, and Kristine Howard.
Congratulations to all and thanks for voting!
Our volunteers have been busy stuffing sample ballots to be mailed to 5,000 households in E.W. and Charlestown townships.
They have also been planting lawn signs for our candidates. And did you notice how a McCawley supporter jumped the gun and planted thousands of signs long before the 30 day window ahead of election day?
There are still opportunities to Get Out The Vote (GOTV). Come to the zone meeting (location to be announced) on Monday Oct. 29, 7pm or volunteer here